The Up & Downs (On Market Dt. 04-06-26)
Even Sensex is Up 74,360.01 13.84 (+0.02%) and Nifty is also UP 23416.55 10.95 (+0.05%), why the Relience Industires down (nea to 52w Low) ? And ITC became 52w Low. Let us see the reasons.
RIL : Even though Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) holds massive weight in the BSE Sensex, it does not always move in tandem with the index. Today’s divergence is a classic example of stock-specific factors overriding broader market sentiment.
- The Ex-Dividend Dynamic (The Timing Factor) : The company set June 5, 2026, as the record date. June 4 (today) is the last day to buy the shares to be eligible for this dividend. (Money Control.com)
- High Capital Expenditure & Rate Cut Anxiety : Reliance’s corporate treasury department has recently been in the news for aggressively strategizing its cash reserves and debt management ahead of the upcoming Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy meeting. (The ET)
- Sectoral Rotation (What is Driving the Sensex?) : The Sensex is a basket of 30 stocks. For the index to be positive, it doesn’t need every stock to rise—it just needs the combined weight of the gainers to outperform the losers. Some are interested in Banking stock like ICICI Bank and etc.
- Pressure on Gross Refining Margins (GRMs): While RIL has successfully diversified into telecom (Jio) and retail, a massive chunk of its core profitability still hinges on its Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment. A recent dip in global crude oil prices, while excellent for easing India’s inflation (and boosting the broader market), actually works as a double-edged sword for Reliance. Lower crude prices and fluctuating global demand often squeeze global refining margins, putting short-term pressure on RIL’s traditional earnings expectations (Equentis)
- Derivative Market Technicals: Market analysts have noted some technical “hammering” and short-selling setups in the derivatives segment for RIL over the last couple of weeks. When large institutional investors or proprietary desks adjust their derivative margins or unwind futures positions ahead of macroeconomic events (like the RBI policy), it can cause temporary artificial pressure on the spot price, irrespective of how well the rest of the market is behaving. (TradingView)
Overall Opinion:
Though the RIL is corrected, it is good for long term but NOT for short term. If some one buy, it may buy st 1290-1293 based on the closing ((L/H: 1293.10 / 1311.20). Even some one bought today at 1300, the actual price they got is 1294 only (1300- 6 Dividend amount). Further, as it is a market leader, one who is accumulating at a steep 19% discount from its yearly highs, close to its historical valuation floor. So, this buying to below 1293- 1290 will be the best, to buy on tomorrow.
ITC: How much lower it can fall ?
Today ITC is 52w Low. So far it was recommended by ICICI Direct & etc. at long back. How much level it will fall due to increaae of tax rate & decline of branded sales, as it transfered the burden to its end users. Unbranded sales increased. Let us see the condition of the ITC.
The Structural Headwinds Facing ITC
The current “free fall” isn’t due to poor corporate earnings—ITC actually reported a stable standalone net profit growth of 5% (₹5,113 crore) for the quarter ending March 2026. Instead, the market is discounting a severe regulatory and structural shift that took effect on February 1, 2026: (Angel One)
- The Aggressive Tax Overhaul: The Govt. increased GST from 20 – 40%.
- The Burden Shift & Volume Risk: Though the company shifted its burden to the customers, it impacted on valume growth. So, sales fall.
- The Rise of Unbranded & Illegal Sales: As it is expected, the unbranded sales are increased.
Technical Analysis: How Much Lower Can It Fall?
It’s immediate support is Rs. 270/- and major demand zone is Rs. 260-255
- Velmula Krishna Rao 04-06-26 8:46 PM
